Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Hi, I'm Gross Seymore, the current Managing Director of Deutsche Bank. I have graduated from Chicago's Booth Business School and have expertise in equity research and valuation.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: Hello, I'm Charles (Charlie) Marryson from Fidelity Investments. I'm the President of Asset Management at the 70-year-old firm and associated with many other investment houses too.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Hey, Brott Schenkel here. I happen to be the CFO at eBay, which as you all know, is a competitor to Amazon.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Hey, my name is Deaf Bezos. I co-founded Amazon in 1994 after realizing how big the internet is and how many commercial uses it can have.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Oh Amazon! The big shark. You started off with merely selling books online and today have 11 websites which deliver items to 180 countries. This scale is quite big.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Oh, it definitely is - it is not for nothing that Deaf himself is amongst the richest in the world. His net worth of grew by $20 billion in 2017 alone. He's the only person in the world worth over $100 billion.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Umm Brott, but Warren Buffett ($76 billion) and Bill Gates ($85 billion) are trailing right behind me.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Well Deaf, the sky is the limit.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: I agree with both Brott and Gross. Amazon generates a lot of wealth. Through a lot of funds, Fidelity owns almost 2-3% of Amazon. And we are here because we see the value.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Well, What do you really think of Amazon?
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: In my opinion, it is the company which has given a new meaning to the word 'disruption.' It has reformed the retail business, it has the changed the entire industry & laid the traditional setup to waste.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Really, I second that. Though, it did not stop there: it moved on and is now part of the media industry, cloud computing, and it's doing to these businesses what it did with the retail business. Even Amazon's growth relative to the retail giant Walmart is striking. It has exploded in terms of market cap.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: You are absolutely right, Gross. For many people, that's the end of the story. They look at these numbers and say, there's no way that Amazon could be worth more than Walmart.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Yeah, Brott. Maybe they're right, maybe they're wrong. I don't think it's that simple; you cannot make judgements on whether a company is large just by looking at his old it is.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: I think we have to look at the future of these companies. That is where the value and the risk both come from.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Right, Charles. In 2016, I'd got a task to analyze the earnings report. The earnings report did not quite meet analyst expectations. It only delivered earnings of $1 per share, for a market value of $800.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Gross, it's not about earning $1, but delivering earnings is a surprise because this is a company which historically has delivered losses.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: Also, I guess expectations were so high, the stock collapsed after the announcement, and it dropped by almost 15%.
That's almost $45 billion in value lost on one day.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: You might be right, Charles. However, I didn't see much in the report that changes my perspective in the company. I think 45 billion is an overreaction. For years, I've always described Amazon as 'a field of dreams' company.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Gross, you mean the movie Field of Dreams, starring Ray Kinsella?
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Yes Deaf, where he builds a baseball field in the middle of Iowa, and he says “If I build, they will come."
Talking about shoeless Joe Jackson and those mythical players that have come out of the cornfield at the end of the movie.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: But Gross, how do you relate it to Amazon?
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Charles, I agree with Gross' idea of Amazon. My vision for the company has always been along these lines. Going back to the very first newsletter that we sent out to investors in '97, the focus has always since then been - we will build up revenues, and they (profits) will come.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Deaf has been so remarkably consistent in telling the story and delivering numbers to back the story that market has given him an incredibly long period to deliver earnings.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: True, Brott. And, he has delivered. I mean what company can grow its revenues at a CAGR of 20%!
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Thank You, Brott and Charles. Even on the profit front, I think Amazon has started to deliver.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: Gross, do you think it is a good investment now, or these have already been priced in by the market?
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Well, to look at the value, we need to look at the cashflows. To look at the cashflows, we need to know revenues and profits.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: I agree with Gross. Also, it won't be so easy as Amazon is a part of a variety of businesses. So, we in effect need to take the weighted average industry margins.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Yes, we are into retail and own other websites that sell clothes and shoes. But more recently, we are getting bigger and bigger with our web services and cloud computing ventures.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: Oh yes, Amazon servers power up Dropbox, Tinder and even the CIA!
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: Moreover, You've also ventured into publishing, music and e-reading. Your Kindle and Echo (speakers) ventures are turning out to be very good.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: But Brott, I think 73% of the revenues come from retail only.
So, even if I assume the company continues to focus on the revenue growth and grows at 20% per annum, and take the revenues to $300 billion (3 times the current $100 billion revenues), the company should triple the profit margins.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: You mean: triple your revenues and margins to justify today's stock price. I leave it upto you about what you think and choose, but I'm surely not going to buy this.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Well, Brott, we'll see whether it is justified or not in good time.
Charles Marryson (Fidelity Investments) :
Analyst: I think I have some input to give to our research analysts. This conversation was quite helpful. Thanks a lot, everyone.
Deaf Bezos (CEO, Amazon) :
CEO: Thanks, Amazon is going to grow into new markets. With drones, we now even have our planes for delivery.
Gross Seymore (Analyst, Deutsche Bank) :
Deutsche: Yes Deaf, with greater control over your own logistics channel and more customers subscribing to Amazon Prime, it may just be possible.
Brott Schenkel (CFO, eBay) :
eBay: All the very best Deaf!
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